| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° to 100° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed outcomes will correspond to the highest temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 21, 2026. It matters to traders and stakeholders who care about weather-sensitive risks (energy demand, events, travel) and who trade on short-term climate outcomes.
Las Vegas sits in a hot desert climate where late winter/early spring is a transitional period; day-to-day highs can swing with passing storms, warm ridging, or downslope winds. Recent decades have seen a trend toward warmer extremes during transitional months, but individual-day outcomes are driven by synoptic weather patterns and local effects.
Market odds reflect the aggregate expectations of participants and adjust as new forecast information arrives; they are a real-time snapshot of collective beliefs, not a guaranteed forecast.
The market resolves to the official observational source specified in its rulebook — typically the National Weather Service/NOAA station designated for Las Vegas (the primary airport observation). Check the market page or rulebook for the exact station name and station ID used for resolution.
Resolution is based on the official daily maximum temperature reported for the calendar date by the referenced authority. Resolution timing follows the platform’s rules and usually occurs once the official, quality-controlled data are published; consult the market page for the platform’s specific resolution timetable.
Each outcome corresponds to a discrete label or temperature range listed on the market page; the observed highest temperature is compared to those labels and the matching outcome is declared the winner according to the market’s mapping rules.
The platform follows its stated contingency procedures in the event of delayed or amended official data, usually deferring to final quality-controlled NOAA/NWS reports or applying the market’s predefined fallback rules; check the market’s dispute and resolution policy for details.
Watch synoptic forecast guidance (global and ensemble models), short-range high-resolution models, NWS forecast discussions for southern Nevada, surface observations across the Las Vegas region, and any bulletins about fronts, strong ridging, or downslope wind events that could materially change daytime highs.