| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98° to 99° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 102° to 103° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 104° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100° to 101° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 20, 2026 will be. It matters to traders and weather observers because daily high temperatures affect energy demand, outdoor event planning, and short-term climate risk assessment.
Late March is a transitional period in the Mojave Desert, when both cool Pacific fronts and early-season warm spells can occur; climatological normals for Las Vegas at this time of year are moderate compared with summer extremes. Long-term warming trends and interannual drivers (for example El Niño/La Niña phases) can shift the odds of unusually warm or cool readings, while day-to-day synoptic patterns determine the realized temperature on a specific date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about which temperature outcome will occur and typically move as new model forecasts and observations arrive. Always consult the market’s resolution rules to map price movement to the defined outcome bins for this event.
The market’s resolution rules specify the official observing station or dataset (for example the designated National Weather Service climate station or a specified airport METAR). Check the event page for the exact station and data source used for resolution.
The close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD). Resolution typically occurs after the end of the local calendar day and after the official daily summary from the designated observing authority has been published—refer to the market’s resolution timeline for precise cutoff and publication windows.
The six outcomes are defined by the numeric temperature ranges and boundaries shown on the event page; tie-breaking and rounding procedures are governed by the market’s resolution rules. Always read those rules to see how exact-boundary values are treated for this specific event.
Historically late March in Las Vegas tends to show moderate daytime highs compared with summer, with many years near climatological averages and occasional deviation from cold fronts or early heat spikes; for exact past values consult official climatological records (NOAA/NWS) or the designated station’s historical archive.
Traders typically follow short-range numerical weather prediction outputs (GFS, ECMWF, regional models), updated METAR/obs, local NWS forecasts and statements, satellite and radar trends, and any changes to the official observing station or reporting procedures listed on the event page.