| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° to 79° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 75° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 2, 2026 will be. Outcomes matter for anyone exposed to weather risk (energy, travel, events, health) and for people who follow short-term climate variability.
Las Vegas in early March typically sits in a transitional season with wide day-to-day variability driven by shifting Pacific storm tracks and occasional high‑pressure ridges. Multi‑year trends toward warmer springs increase the baseline, but synoptic-scale patterns (ridges, troughs, frontal passages) usually determine the single‑day maximum. Market prices aggregate forecasters, model output, and local observations as the date approaches.
Market odds represent the consensus view of which temperature range traders expect to be observed on that date and update as new model runs and observations arrive. Use them as a real‑time signal of collective expectation, but consult official meteorological sources for operational decisions.
Resolution normally relies on the official NOAA/NWS observing station designated in the market rules (typically the primary airport weather station for Las Vegas). Check the event's resolution rules to confirm the exact station identifier and dataset.
This market is split into a finite set of discrete outcomes (six ranges). Each outcome corresponds to a specified temperature interval for the highest observed temperature on Mar 2, 2026; consult the market page to see the exact numeric bins and their endpoints.
Most weather markets follow the official NWS/NOAA archived record and any final corrected values published by the designated observing agency; the market's resolution terms will specify reliance on the authoritative final dataset and any dispute procedures.
Date definitions typically follow local time at the observing station (the 00:00–23:59 local calendar day) as specified in the market rules; verify the resolution language for the precise local‑time convention used.
Watch operational guidance such as ECMWF and GFS deterministic/ensemble runs, high‑resolution regional models (e.g., NAM/HRRR where available), and the National Weather Service forecasts and briefings for Las Vegas; real‑time surface observations from the airport and nearby mesonet stations are also critical for final adjustments.