| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 101° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° to 100° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest recorded temperature in Las Vegas on March 19, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive planning, risk management, and testing forecasting signals in a desert climate with strong day-to-day variability.
Las Vegas sits in the Mojave Desert where March can span cool, springlike days to early-season warm spells; year-to-year variability is driven by synoptic weather patterns and longer-term warming trends. Markets like this translate meteorological forecasts and local observations into tradable outcomes, aggregating information from forecasters, model updates, and recent observations. The market lists six mutually exclusive outcomes and will settle to an official observation as specified in the market rules.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s aggregated expectations about which temperature outcome will be observed and update as forecasts and observations change; they are a real-time signal, not a guarantee of the eventual measurement.
Close time is listed as TBD on the market page; settlement will follow the market’s stated rules and use the official highest temperature observation for Las Vegas on March 19, 2026 from the designated data source, with final settlement announced after that official value is published.
The market description identifies the precise official source and station (for example, a NOAA/NWS observation site); traders should consult the market rules to confirm the exact station identifier and any time-standard used for the observation.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific, mutually exclusive temperature category or discrete value defined on the market page; the outcome that matches the official highest temperature observation on March 19, 2026 will determine settlement.
Synoptic-scale model guidance and pattern signals can influence expectations a week or more out, but forecast precision typically improves markedly in the 1–3 days before the date as higher-resolution models and observations converge.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation and context for variability, but it should be combined with current-season observations and forecasted synoptic anomalies, since single-day extremes are often driven by transient weather systems.