| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° to 99° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Las Vegas will be on March 18, 2026. Outcomes provide a way for traders and observers to express expectations about that single-day weather extreme, which matters for event planning, energy demand forecasting, and climate monitoring.
Las Vegas sits in a hot, arid basin with large day–night temperature swings and strong seasonal transitions; mid-March is a shoulder-season period when both cool Pacific systems and early spring warmth are possible. Historical weather on single days can vary widely from year to year due to synoptic-scale patterns (jets and troughs), local wind regimes, and clear-sky heating.
Market odds summarize trader expectations about which temperature outcome is most likely given available information and risk preferences; they are a real-time consensus signal, not a formal meteorological forecast, and should be used alongside official observations and forecasts.
Settlement will use the official observing station specified in the market contract; many operational weather contracts specify the National Weather Service/NOAA official station for Las Vegas (the airport station), so check the market’s rule text for the designated source.
The market will use the calendar day time window defined in its rules (typically the local 24-hour period from 00:00 to 23:59 local time at the designated station); confirm the contract language to see whether local standard or daylight-saving time conventions apply.
Settlement timing depends on when the designated official source publishes its daily observations and any additional verification or quality-control steps specified by the market; consult the event’s settlement rules for the expected publication or adjudication timeframe.
Most contracts settle to the value reported by the designated official observing station only; readings from private or unofficial sensors do not affect outcomes unless the contract explicitly names them.
March is a transitional month when Pacific storm tracks can still bring cool air and clouds, while strong spring sunshine and downslope warming can produce warm days; broader patterns such as the state of ENSO or a persistent atmospheric ridge/trough will influence which of these tendencies dominates.