| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of the six listed outcomes will correspond to the highest air temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 17, 2026. Results matter for weather-sensitive planning (energy, events, travel) and for traders who want to express views about near-term temperature outcomes.
Las Vegas sits in the Mojave Desert and March is a transitional month with a wide normal range of temperatures; late-winter storms or an early warm spell can both occur. Interannual climate drivers (for example El Niño/La Niña) and long-term warming trends influence baseline conditions but short-term synoptic patterns determine the specific temperature on a given day.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation for which temperature outcome will be recorded, updating as new forecasts and observations arrive. Interpreting odds here means treating them as indicators of consensus expectations, not guarantees of a single actual temperature.
Settlement uses the official data source and station specified in the market rules—typically an official meteorological station serving Las Vegas (such as the local airport or a designated climate station). The market rules also define the measurement unit, rounding convention, and the 24‑hour local time window used to determine the maximum.
The market close time is listed on the platform (here it is currently TBD). Outcome settlement occurs after the official observing agency confirms the daily maximum for March 17, 2026, per the market's settlement rules; timing depends on when those official reports are published.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature bucket or specific temperature values as shown on the market page. Those outcomes are arranged to be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive for the possible observed maximum temperatures on that date—refer to the event page for the exact bins.
Typical authoritative sources include the National Weather Service/NOAA daily climate records, the official airport ASOS/METAR observations, and the relevant state climate office data; the market rules list the primary source used for settlement.
Useful inputs include deterministic and ensemble model guidance (e.g., GFS, ECMWF ensembles), local NWS forecast discussions, satellite and radar trends, and surface observations near the official station; these help refine expectations for cloud cover, advection, and timing of any fronts that will control the max temperature.