| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain the highest reported air temperature in Las Vegas on March 16, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature outcomes reflect synoptic weather patterns and can affect energy demand, public health advisories, and local operations.
Las Vegas sits in a desert climate with large day-to-day variability in spring as transient Pacific storms, high-pressure ridges, and downslope warming can all influence daytime highs. Seasonal normals and recent multi-year warming trends set a baseline, but individual days can deviate substantially when atmospheric patterns amplify warming or cooling.
Market prices represent the crowd’s real-time consensus about which outcome is most likely, not a guaranteed result; they update as new forecasts and observations arrive. For final resolution, participants should consult the market’s official rules and the designated observational source.
The outcome will be determined by the official station specified in the market rules; markets like this commonly reference the National Weather Service/NOAA reporting station for Las Vegas (the airport ASOS) but you must check this event’s resolution source on the market page.
The market uses the highest air temperature recorded during the calendar day as defined in the market’s rules (typically 00:00–23:59 local time at the designated station) measured by standard meteorological instruments and reporting procedures.
This event currently shows a TBD close; trades typically end before the observation period begins. Monitor the market page for the announced close time and any changes so you can adjust positions prior to the resolution window.
Consider typical mid‑March climatology (transitional spring conditions), recent seasonal anomalies, and notable past extremes for the date. Official historical records from NCEI or the NWS provide date‑by‑date highs and records that help contextualize whether a given value would be typical or exceptional.
Resolution follows the data source and procedures specified in the event’s rules; when discrepancies occur, markets usually default to the designated primary dataset (for example, the official NOAA/NWS observation) and any tie‑breaking or dispute procedures spelled out by the market operator.