| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 15, 2026 will be; it matters because temperature outcomes affect energy usage, travel, outdoor-event planning, and weather-based trading strategies.
Late winter to early spring in Las Vegas is a season of transition with large day-to-day variability: mild sunny days can be interrupted by cool Pacific storms or occasional late-season warm stretches. Long-term climate trends have raised baseline temperatures over decades, but short-term synoptic weather (highs, cold fronts, regional pressure patterns) determines the single-day maximum.
Market odds reflect traders' collective expectations about meteorological conditions on that specific date and should be read as the market consensus at a given time, not as a guaranteed forecast or official meteorological prediction.
The event page lists the close time as TBD; check the market page for official open/close times and any last-trade cutoff prior to the observation date.
Settlement will follow the specific adjudication rules listed on the market — typically the maximum reported air temperature from the official observation site or data source specified in the market terms (refer to the market description for the exact station and measurement protocol).
This market is structured into six discrete outcomes; the precise temperature ranges or bins for each outcome are defined on the market page, so consult that listing to see the exact thresholds for each of the six options.
The market description specifies the official data source and station used for resolution; common sources include local National Weather Service observational sites or other designated official meteorological datasets — verify the market rules for the exact source.
Compare typical mid-March climatology and recent March observations for Las Vegas to understand how unusual different outcomes would be; historical context helps assess how synoptic patterns or anomalies could push the observed maximum above or below typical values.