| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will correspond to the highest recorded temperature in Las Vegas on March 14, 2026; it matters to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability. Outcome prices provide a real-time aggregation of expectations about that single-day maximum temperature.
Las Vegas has a desert climate with large diurnal temperature swings; mid-March is a transitional month where temperatures can vary widely depending on large-scale weather patterns. Historical climatology places March highs comfortably above freezing but well below summer extremes, and year-to-year variation is influenced by factors like synoptic ridging, storm tracks, and broader climate signals such as El Niño/La Niña. The market lists six discrete outcome bins that cover different temperature ranges for that calendar day.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature bin will contain the daily maximum recorded at the official observing site; interpret prices as the market’s snapshot of relative confidence among outcomes rather than precise forecasts. Because prices update continuously, check the market near the event for the most relevant information.
Resolution will use the official daily maximum temperature reported for March 14, 2026 by the designated observing station for Las Vegas (the National Weather Service station at Harry Reid International Airport) for the local calendar day.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature range (a bin) that covers possible maximum temperatures for March 14; the market page lists those six ranges and the market resolves to the single bin that contains the official observed maximum.
Resolution occurs after the official daily maximum is available for the local calendar day of March 14, 2026; trading typically closes before the event and the market resolves once the certifying agency publishes the daily summary for that date.
Monitor deterministic and ensemble model trends in the 1–5 days before March 14: consistent model agreement toward a warm ridge or a cool trough will materially change expected outcomes, while large model spread implies greater uncertainty and higher chance of surprise.
Long-term warming raises the baseline seasonal temperatures, shifting climatology upward over decades, but any single-day maximum still depends on short-term weather patterns; consider both the climatological context and near-term meteorology when evaluating outcomes.