| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to forecast the highest temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 13, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive stakeholders such as energy traders, event planners, and public-safety officials who monitor temperature-driven demand and risk.
Las Vegas sits in the Mojave Desert with large day-to-night temperature swings and a seasonal transition from late winter to early spring in March. Day-to-day outcomes depend heavily on the regional synoptic pattern—whether a Pacific storm, cold front, or a subtropical ridge dominates—while long-term climate patterns can bias conditions seasonally.
Market prices represent the aggregated, real-time expectations about which temperature outcome will be highest on that date and will update as new model runs and observations arrive. Use them as a dynamic signal of collective information and model consensus, not as a definitive forecast.
Settlement will follow the official temperature reported by the National Weather Service / NOAA for the Las Vegas primary observing station (the official airport-area weather station) as published in the designated settlement source.
The relevant window is the local calendar day for March 13, 2026, as defined by the official observing agency; the highest temperature recorded at the official station during that local day will determine the outcome following NWS/NOAA reporting conventions.
Short-range forecasts (a few days out) generally offer the most reliable detail about specific temperature outcomes; confidence typically improves over the week leading up to the date, while skill decreases at longer lead times.
Yes. Markets rely on the official observing record; if the official provider revises or corrects the reported temperature or documents a station change affecting measurements, settlement will follow the official corrected value and procedures.
Broad patterns such as ENSO influence the jet stream and storm track, which can make dry, warm ridging or cooler, unsettled conditions more likely; an incoming spring cold front on or before Mar 13 would tend to suppress daytime highs, whereas persistent ridging or dry offshore winds would tend to elevate them.