| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Las Vegas on March 12, 2026. Results matter for people and businesses managing weather-sensitive operations such as events, energy usage, and public health planning.
Las Vegas sits in the Mojave Desert and typically experiences wide day-to-night temperature swings in early spring; individual March days can vary from cool to warm depending on synoptic patterns. Longer-term climate change has increased the frequency and magnitude of heat extremes, while year-to-year variability is influenced by Pacific Ocean conditions such as El Niño and La Niña.
Market odds aggregate traders' information and react to updated forecasts and observations; they represent the market consensus at a given time but are not guaranteed outcomes. Use them alongside official forecasts and the contract's measurement rules when assessing likely outcomes.
The contract is settled according to the specific measurement and reporting station listed in the event terms—typically the official National Weather Service observation for the primary Las Vegas airport or another designated station. Check the market's contract text for the precise station and measurement definition.
Trading close and settlement timing are set by the exchange and shown on the market page; settlement normally occurs after the official daily temperature for March 12, 2026 is published by the reporting agency named in the contract. Confirm the stated close time and settlement rules on the event page.
The event's contract specifies the source—commonly the National Weather Service (NWS) or the meteorological office that provides official daily maxima at the designated station. Refer to the event description for the exact data source used for settlement.
As the date approaches, new model runs, ensemble spreads, and observed trends (e.g., temperature anomalies or frontal timing) will shift market expectations; near-term observations and updated forecasts typically have the largest impact in the few days before the event.
Historical variability shows that March days in Las Vegas can range from relatively cool to notably warm, so historical context provides a baseline expectation and an understanding of plausible outcomes. Combine historical climatology with current-season signals and operational forecasts to form an informed view.