| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 25% | 23¢ | 32¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 64% | 65¢ | 68¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six predefined temperature outcomes will represent the highest air temperature recorded in Las Vegas on March 11, 2026. It matters because short-term weather extremes affect energy demand, event planning, and local businesses, and markets aggregate expectations about those conditions.
Las Vegas experiences large day-to-day temperature swings in spring as the region transitions from cool winter patterns to warmer desert conditions. Long-term warming trends, annual variability (including El Niño/La Niña influences), and synoptic-scale storms all shape temperatures on a given date. Historical climatology for March can provide context but does not determine a single-day outcome.
Market prices summarize the collective view of participants about which temperature bucket is most likely to occur on the specified date; treat prices as evolving signals that incorporate new weather forecasts and observations rather than fixed predictions.
Settlement is based on the official meteorological observation specified in the market's rules; this is typically the highest air temperature recorded by the designated official station serving Las Vegas on March 11 local time. Check the market page or contract rules for the named station and measurement protocol.
The applicable 24-hour window is defined in the market's settlement rules; most weather contracts use local calendar date (00:00 to 23:59 local time) for the designated station, but you should confirm the exact time standard and cutoff on the KALSHI market page.
This market is split into six mutually exclusive temperature outcome buckets covering the possible range of highest temperatures for the date. The precise boundaries and any rounding convention are listed on the market page—review them before trading so you know which bucket corresponds to which temperature range.
The market close time is listed as TBD; settlement normally occurs after the official observation for March 11 is published by the designated observing authority. Check the market page for the announced close time and the settlement timeline once those details are posted.
Use official climatological archives (for example, the National Centers for Environmental Information or local National Weather Service climate data) and station-specific historical records to review past March 11 maximums; KALSHI may also link to external data or discuss relevant historical context on the market page.