| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° to 80° | 93% | 93¢ | 98¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Las Vegas will be on March 10, 2026. It matters for traders and hedgers who track short-term weather risk and for anyone interested in how synoptic-scale patterns translate into a daily high in a desert city.
Las Vegas sits in the Mojave Desert and exhibits large day-to-day temperature swings in spring as the region transitions from winter to summer. Early March is a transitional month: outcomes can be driven either by cool Pacific frontal systems or by early-season warm ridging and downslope warming. Settlement conventions and the chosen observing station determine which measurement is used.
Market odds represent the collective expectations of participants about which temperature range will be observed; they summarize market sentiment, not guarantees. Interpret odds in light of market liquidity, recent forecast updates, and the contract's settlement rules.
The contract will specify the official observing source; most weather contracts rely on the National Weather Service/NOAA station designated for Las Vegas (Harry Reid International Airport) or the named station in the market's settlement terms. Check the event's settlement rules for the exact source.
‘Highest temperature’ generally refers to the daily maximum air temperature reported by the official observing station, typically derived from continuous or hourly observations and subject to post-event quality control. Review the contract language for the precise definition used to settle this market.
The date refers to local date at the official observing site in Las Vegas. Because U.S. daylight saving time begins March 8, 2026, the relevant local time will be Pacific Daylight Time; the contract will indicate whether settlement uses 00:00–23:59:59 local time or another convention.
Settlement procedures for missing or questionable data are governed by the market's contingency rules: common approaches include using the nearest official station, using a quality-controlled final dataset from NWS/NCEI, or following an arbitration procedure detailed in the event rules. Consult those rules before trading.
Monitor medium-range ensemble forecasts and deterministic models for ridge/trough placement, surface frontal timing, ensemble spread (forecast uncertainty), satellite and upper-air analyses, short-range numerical guidance for cloud cover and winds, and recent observed temperatures near Las Vegas to track trends.