| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $71K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $63K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $59K | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $53K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 66° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will contain the highest observed temperature in Los Angeles on March 9, 2026; it matters because weather outcomes affect energy demand, event planning, and local operations. Traders use information from forecasts and observations to express expectations about that single-day maximum.
Los Angeles in early March sits in a seasonal transition with variability driven by Pacific storm systems, coastal marine layer dynamics, and occasional offshore wind events. This market offers six discrete outcome bins (see the market page for exact definitions) so participants can trade on different temperature bands as forecasts evolve. Volume and activity reflect how participants update expectations when new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive.
Market prices aggregate the beliefs of traders about which temperature band will occur and update as new information arrives; they are an indicator of collective expectation, not an official meteorological forecast. The final outcome will be determined according to the contract's specified data source and settlement rules.
The market close is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement will occur after the official daily maximum temperature for March 9, 2026 is posted by the data source named in the contract. Check the market's contract terms on KALSHI for the exact settlement timeline and any delay for official reporting.
The contract specifies the official data source and the exact station or composite used to determine the highest temperature; consult the event's rules on KALSHI to see whether it uses a specific National Weather Service station, an airport, or another official reporting site.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature range (a set of mutually exclusive bins). The market page lists the exact numeric bounds for each outcome; traders purchase shares in the bin they believe will contain the day’s maximum.
Major moves typically occur as deterministic guidance and high-resolution model runs converge—most notably within about 1–4 days of the target date—though long-range pattern shifts can cause earlier adjustments. Short-term observations (satellite, surface reports) and updated model ensembles often drive the largest near-term changes.
KALSHI, as the market operator, follows the dispute and resolution procedures defined in the event's contract; any contest about the official value would be handled according to those rules and the designated official data source named on the market page.