| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90° to 91° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $102K | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $86K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $81K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| 83° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| 92° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will contain the highest observed air temperature in Los Angeles on March 8, 2026. It matters to traders, event planners, utilities, and anyone with weather-sensitive exposure who wants to hedge or express a view on that day's temperature outcome.
Early March in Los Angeles is a transitional time: Pacific storms and a persistent marine layer often keep afternoons mild, but offshore (Santa Ana) wind events or late-season warm spells can produce much warmer readings. The contract will settle against an official observing station and data source named on the KALSHI event page, so historical climatology, short-range forecasts, and the named station's microclimate are all relevant.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which discrete temperature range will contain the observed maximum; they update as forecasts and new information arrive. Use market prices as a real-time signal but always confirm the contract's settlement rules and official data source before making trading or operational decisions.
Settlement uses the official maximum air temperature reported for the local date by the observation source and station named in the KALSHI contract; check the event page for the specific station, data provider (e.g., NOAA/NWS, ASOS/METAR), and units.
The event page lists the market close and settlement timeline; if close is TBD, KALSHI will publish the definitive closing time and the timing for when the official observation will be reviewed and the market settled.
March 8, 2026 is the U.S. DST transition date, which shortens the local clock day by one hour; whether that affects the recorded 'day' depends on the contract's definition of the observation window, so confirm the contract wording about local time conventions and the data source's reporting period.
The six outcomes are discrete, mutually exclusive temperature bins shown on the market page; the winning outcome is the bin that contains the official highest temperature reading as reported by the designated data source — check the event rules for exact numeric breakpoints and inclusivity.
Monitor model runs for incoming Pacific fronts, trends in the marine layer and onshore flow, forecasts for offshore wind events, and official NWS products; large-scale climate drivers (ENSO state) and recent sea surface temperatures can also modulate the overall pattern leading into that date.