| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $75K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $45K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $42K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which temperature range will be the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 7, 2026; it matters because day-to-day temperature extremes affect energy demand, health, and local operations.
Prediction markets for weather aggregate traders' expectations based on forecasts, climatology, and recent observations. This KALSHI market offers six mutually exclusive outcomes and has seen $19,024 in trading volume to date, providing some liquidity for price discovery. Final resolution depends on the specific observing station and time window defined in the contract.
Market odds are a real-time aggregation of participants' views and reflect both meteorological information and trader risk preferences. Use them as a dynamic signal that updates as new forecasts and observations arrive, not as a fixed forecast.
The market contract specifies the official data source and station used for resolution—typically an NWS/NOAA-designated station or another named observing site. Check the KALSHI market rules for the exact station, reporting period, and instrument details; resolution follows that specification.
The market page shows the official close time; if the listing shows 'TBD' the platform will announce a close before trading ends. The resolved outcome is published after the designated daily observations are available and KALSHI completes its contractual resolution procedures.
The market divides possible highest temperatures into six non-overlapping buckets; the exact numerical boundaries for each outcome are listed on the market page. Consult that outcome list to see the precise ranges used for settlement.
Use long-term climatology for March 7 to set a baseline expectation, then layer in recent trends and short-range model forecasts to assess deviation risk. Historical extremes, variability, and recent weeks' anomalies help gauge how likely larger departures from the baseline are.
Greater volume generally improves liquidity and the market's ability to incorporate information, but volume alone doesn't ensure accuracy. Evaluate liquidity, how prices move after new forecasts, bid-ask spreads, and clarity of resolution rules to judge how informative the market prices are.