| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° or above | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 36% | 31¢ | 36¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 46% | 45¢ | 46¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 6% | 6¢ | 8¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 68° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete temperature range will contain the highest observed temperature in Los Angeles on March 6, 2026. Outcomes provide a market-based signal about expected weather for that specific day, which can matter for planning outdoor events, energy demand, and public-health preparations.
Los Angeles experiences large variability in early March as the climate transitions from winter to spring; some years see cool, marine-layer-dominated days while others have warm conditions driven by offshore ridging or Santa Ana winds. This market has six mutually exclusive outcomes (temperature ranges) and is offered on KALSHI with trading volume indicating active participant interest.
Market odds aggregate traders’ information and update as forecasts, observations, and expectations change; interpret them as a real-time consensus signal rather than a precise meteorological forecast. For absolute resolution details, consult the market’s official rules and listed observation source.
The market’s resolution depends on the precise station and authoritative source named in the KALSHI contract text; check the market page for the exact station (for example, a specified airport or NWS station) and the official reporting agency that will be used to resolve the outcome.
Close time is listed on the market page (currently TBD); resolution typically occurs after the named observing agency publishes the daily maximum for March 6, and the contract will resolve according to the timing and procedures in the market rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range (bin) defined on the market page; consult the outcome list on KALSHI to see the exact numeric boundaries and whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive.
Resolution follows the contingency and data-revision rules in the contract text; many markets specify backup sources or state that the official reporting agency’s revised value will be used—review the market’s resolution policy for details.
Monitor deterministic and ensemble model trends (e.g., GFS, ECMWF), NWS forecasts and discussions for Southern California, satellite and radar for cloud cover and marine layer extent, surface observations across LA, and any forecasts for offshore/Santa Ana winds that could boost temperatures.