| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° or above | 44% | 43¢ | 44¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 8% | 6¢ | 8¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 26% | 25¢ | 28¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 67° or below | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 17% | 16¢ | 17¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Los Angeles on March 5, 2026. It matters to traders and weather observers because daily high temperatures are driven by atmospheric patterns and can influence energy demand, outdoor events, and local planning.
Los Angeles daily highs in early March reflect the transition from winter to spring and are influenced by large-scale patterns like Pacific storms, ridging, and the marine layer. Historical variability can be large from year to year, with some March days feeling wintry and others unusually mild. This market uses predefined outcome bins to capture that range of possible highs on the specified date.
Market prices indicate collective expectations about which temperature bin will contain the day's maximum, but individual prices change as new forecasts and observations arrive. For settlement and exact definitions, consult the contract details on the market page.
The winning outcome is determined by the highest official temperature reported for the specified Los Angeles observing location on March 5, 2026; the market contract lists the authoritative data source and station used for settlement.
The market contract explicitly names the observing station or dataset that defines 'Los Angeles' for settlement; always check the market page to see which station (or aggregated source) is specified.
The measurement window and local time conventions (for example, 00:00–23:59 local time) are specified in the contract; settlement follows the timing rules and timezone described there.
Settlement follows the procedures of the specified official data source—if that source flags or corrects data, the market uses the quality-controlled record and any tie-breaking or exception rules listed in the contract.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bin or category defined on the market page; the outcome whose bin contains the highest recorded temperature for the specified station on March 5, 2026 will be settled as the winner.