| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $72K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $59K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 96% | 94¢ | 95¢ | — | $56K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $50K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest observed air temperature in Los Angeles on March 4, 2026. It matters to people and businesses that track weather-driven demand, public safety decisions, and seasonal climate monitoring.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with strong day-to-day variability in spring; early March can be influenced by cool marine air, or by warm offshore (Santa Ana) events that push highs well above seasonal norms. Short-term synoptic setups and local factors (marine layer, urban heat island, station siting) typically determine the single-day maximum, while long-term warming trends shift baseline expectations.
Market prices summarize participants' aggregated expectations based on forecasts and incoming data; interpret them as a real-time signal of how traders view likely weather outcomes rather than a definitive forecast.
The contract resolves according to the market's resolution clause; KALSHI markets name the authoritative observation source or station in the event description — check that field for the exact station or dataset (for example, a specified NWS station or airport ASOS/ASHRAE record).
The listed close time is TBD on the market page; markets typically stop trading shortly before the start of the resolution date or at the platform-specified close time. Resolution usually uses the official highest reported value within the local calendar day for the specified station — confirm the exact cutoff in the event rules.
The event description should specify which reporting location defines 'Los Angeles' for this contract; if a single station is named, that station's recorded maximum on March 4, 2026 is used rather than a metro-area aggregate.
Compare the market's target day to long-term climatology and past March 4 observations from NOAA/NCEI or local weather records to see how typical the value would be; traders often reference recent March extremes and multi-decade averages when forming expectations.
Monitor operational guidance (ECMWF and GFS), high-resolution short-range models (e.g., HRRR), NWS Los Angeles forecast discussions, satellite and radar imagery for marine layer evolution, surface wind forecasts for any offshore wind events, and local METAR/ASOS observations and trends in the 72 hours before the date.