| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $181K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $52K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $44K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $35K | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will represent the highest recorded temperature in Los Angeles on March 3, 2026. It matters to traders and observers because daily max temperatures capture short-term weather risk and reflect interactions between synoptic patterns and local effects.
The market is a short-horizon weather contract tied to a single calendar day in a major U.S. city; such markets attract attention from weather traders, energy and event planners, and climate-interested participants. Historical variability in early March is influenced by Pacific storm tracks, occasional offshore wind events, and the broader state of seasonal climate drivers such as El Niño/La Niña and the long-term warming trend.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of participants based on forecasts, observations, and risk preferences; they typically move as operational weather models and local forecasts update in the days before the target date.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the page; settlement typically follows publication of the official daily maximum for the designated observation site and will follow the exchange's settlement rules — check the market's details for exact settlement timing and any post-processing period.
The market description and rules specify the official station or dataset used for settlement (for example an NWS official station or airport site); always confirm on the market page which station is authoritative because urban versus coastal sites can show different highs.
Forecasts from global and regional models, short-range ensemble spreads, and local NWS forecasts drive market expectations — updates to model runs and observed trends in the 1–7 days before the date typically produce the largest market movement.
Early March variability is often governed by the Pacific storm track and the tendency for coastal marine layer development; anomalous offshore wind events or a persistent high-pressure ridge can push highs well above seasonal norms, while onshore flow and late-season systems can keep highs cooler.
Monitor NWS/NOAA forecasts and local NWS Los Angeles forecast discussions, operational model outputs (ECMWF, GFS and their ensembles), satellite imagery and surface observations at the market's designated station, and short-range model consensus in the 48–120 hour window.