| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete outcome will represent the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 29, 2026. It matters because one-day temperature extremes influence local energy demand, public health warnings, and short-term planning decisions.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with large day-to-day variability during transitional months like late March. Synoptic patterns (coastal marine layer versus inland warming, offshore Santa Ana winds) and broader seasonal drivers (e.g., ENSO state) can produce notably different temperatures on a given spring day. The market aggregates trader expectations about which temperature range will be observed on that specific date.
Market odds summarize the collective view of participating traders given available forecasts and uncertainty; they update as new weather model runs, observations, and information arrive. Treat odds as a real-time consensus signal rather than a definitive forecast.
The market close time is shown on the event page (currently listed as TBD); the final outcome will be determined after March 29, 2026 according to the exchange's settlement schedule and the contract's timing rules.
The event's contract specifies the official observing station or dataset used for settlement; check the Kalshi event page for that exact source. Many weather markets use an official NOAA/NWS climate station (for example an airport station) or a named local observing site.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature range or threshold listed in the market description; traders buy or sell positions tied to those discrete ranges and the range that contains the verified highest temperature is the settled winner.
Settlement will rely on the official daily maximum recorded by the designated observing station for the stated local date; the contract defines whether the maximum is the highest instantaneous reading, the highest hourly observation, and the exact local time window used for the date.
Examine long-term climatology for late March highs in the Los Angeles area, differences between coastal and inland microclimates, the historical frequency of early-season Santa Ana events, and current seasonal indicators (e.g., ENSO). Also monitor short-range model forecasts and official NWS statements in the days immediately before March 29.