| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest recorded air temperature in Los Angeles on March 28, 2026. Outcomes are useful for hedging weather-sensitive operations and for tracking near-term climate variability in a high-profile U.S. metro area.
Late March in Los Angeles is a transitional period when coastal marine influence, inland warming, and synoptic-scale pattern shifts all compete to set daily highs. Short-term weather systems (ridges, troughs, frontal passages) and seasonal climate drivers can meaningfully change expected temperatures in the days leading up to the date. Local factors such as urban heat island effects and topography produce different maxima across the metro area.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders, integrating meteorological model output, recent observations, and participant information; they update as forecasts and observations evolve and serve as a real-time signal of market sentiment about that day’s high.
It refers to the maximum official air temperature recorded during the calendar date March 28, 2026 at the observation location(s) and according to the measurement protocol specified on the event page; check the event's settlement rules for the exact definition and station list.
The event page on KALSHI lists the official source(s) used to settle this market—typically an NWS/NOAA surface observation for the named Los Angeles station(s) or a consolidated metro dataset; confirm the exact source and station identifiers on the event details before trading.
The platform sets a trading cutoff for this event (currently listed on the event page as TBD); KALSHI will publish the exact close time and whether trading ends before the local observation window begins or at another specified cutoff.
Settlement follows the event's published rules: the platform typically relies on the official data provider’s validated records, uses documented tie-breaking or data-replacement procedures if specified, and defers to corrections issued by the official observing agency; consult the event rules for the precise resolution process.
Monitor operational weather models (e.g., medium-range deterministic and ensemble guidance), National Weather Service forecasts and advisories for Los Angeles, satellite imagery for marine layer extent, surface observation trends at the designated stations, and any forecast updates from private meteorological services that influence daytime maximum expectations.