| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles will be on March 27, 2026. It matters to traders and observers because temperatures influence energy demand, health risks, and short-term weather-sensitive economic activity in the region.
Late March is a seasonal transition period in Southern California when conditions can swing between cool, marine-influenced days and warmer, offshore-wind events. Historical records show wide variability on individual dates due to synoptic-scale patterns and local effects such as Santa Ana winds and urban heat islands. The market uses a predefined resolution procedure (set by the exchange) to determine the official reading for that calendar date.
Market prices represent the collective judgment of participants about which outcome is most likely; they change as observations and forecasts evolve. Use prices as a real-time indicator of consensus, not as a fixed forecast or official weather record.
The market outcome is based on the maximum air temperature recorded during the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) on March 27, 2026; check the exchange's contract for the official measurement window and time zone (local Pacific time, accounting for daylight saving).
The exchange's resolution clause specifies the official data source and station (for example, an NWS/NOAA observing site). Consult the market contract on the platform to see the exact station ID or dataset used for adjudication.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bin or specific value as defined by the market listing. Review the outcome labels on the market page to understand the ranges or thresholds that determine which outcome will resolve.
Tie-breaking and multi-station discrepancies are handled according to the market's resolution rules; common approaches include using the official NWS consolidated observation, the earliest reported time, or a specified primary station. The contract text explains the exact procedure.
Short-term model updates, new satellite and radar observations, surface station reports, and the arrival timing of fronts or wind events will alter expectations and thus market prices; because the market updates continuously, traders incorporate the latest forecast guidance and observations up until market close and resolution.