| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which pre-defined outcome will represent the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 26, 2026. The result matters for planning by energy providers, public health officials, and businesses sensitive to temperature extremes.
Late March is a transitional period in Southern California when temperatures can be driven by Pacific weather systems, coastal marine layers, or offshore wind events. Local climatology and year-to-year variability (including long-term warming trends) provide context, but the specific outcome for a single date is driven by synoptic-scale set-ups and short-range forecasts.
Prices in this market reflect the collective expectation about which outcome will occur given current information; they update as new model guidance, observations, and local conditions change. Treat market odds as a continuously updated signal, not a guarantee.
The contract page specifies the official observing station and data provider used for settlement. Common sources are National Weather Service or NOAA station data; consult the market rules on the contract page to see the exact station and dataset that will be used.
The market's listed close time appears on the contract page; the temperature for March 26, 2026 is measured over the local calendar day in the time zone specified in the market rules (typically Pacific Time). Check the contract page for the authoritative close time and time-zone definition.
Settlement follows the data source named in the contract. If that source has missing or ambiguous records, the market's published dispute and tiebreaker procedures apply—see the event's settlement rules for how alternate sources or arbitration are handled.
Broad meteorological patterns influence expectations weeks out, but short-range models and updated observations—typically in the several days leading up to the date—have far more impact on the likely daily maximum; sudden fronts or wind events can shift expectations within a few days or even overnight.
Use official archives such as NOAA/NCEI or the National Weather Service station records, state climate offices, and local station archives to view past March 26 observations and climatological normals; these sources let you assess how a given outcome compares to historical variability.