| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bracket will reflect the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 25, 2026. It matters because that daily high affects local health advisories, energy demand, and short-term weather risk assessments.
Los Angeles in late March sits in a transitional season: temperatures can be moderated by the Pacific marine layer or pushed higher by offshore flows and strong ridging. Local microclimates (coast vs inland basins) and broader climate factors such as interannual patterns can produce notable day-to-day variability.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which temperature bracket will occur and move as forecasts and observations change; they should be used alongside official meteorological sources and the market's settlement rules rather than as definitive forecasts.
The market is resolved using the official source and station specified on the KALSHI market page; that description identifies the authoritative reporting station (for example, a National Weather Service observation site) and any time-window used for the daily maximum.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a distinct temperature bracket listed in the event description; the bracket that contains the final reported highest temperature at the specified station on March 25, 2026 is the winning outcome.
The trading close time is listed on the market page (currently TBD) and will be set by KALSHI; resolution occurs after the official daily maximum is published by the named observing authority and once any platform verification procedures are complete, per the market's settlement rules.
KALSHI's market rules govern fallbacks and disputes—common procedures include using the nearest official station, archived NWS/NOAA records, or following a specified adjudication process; consult the market's rules section for the exact resolution protocol.
Track local National Weather Service forecasts, short-range numerical model guidance (e.g., 0–7 day ensembles), marine layer forecasts, wind forecasts for offshore/Santa Ana events, and hourly observations from the specific station named in the market page.