| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 24, 2026. It matters because day-to-day temperature extremes affect energy demand, public health planning, and provide real-time signals about weather patterns and climate variability.
Late March is a seasonal transition month in Southern California when conditions can swing between cool, marine-influenced days and warmer, inland-driven days. Short-term extremes on a single date are typically driven by synoptic-scale patterns (Pacific ridges, cold fronts) and local drivers such as offshore Santa Ana winds or a persistent marine layer. Market participants should consult the market's settlement rules to see which observation site and dataset determine the official value.
Market odds reflect participants' collective expectations about which outcome bin will contain the recorded maximum temperature on that date and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Treat market prices as a summary of current information, not a guaranteed forecast; they can change up until the market's close and settlement.
The official close time is set by the platform and may be listed on the event page; if it is listed as TBD, monitor the event page or platform notices for the final trading cutoff and any last-minute updates.
Settlement depends on the market's defined data source and station—typically an official NOAA/NWS observation site (such as a designated airport or weather station). Check the event's settlement rules on the platform to see the exact station, time window, and dataset used.
The platform follows its published settlement procedures for ties and data issues, which commonly rely on final, quality-controlled observations from an official data provider and specified tiebreaker rules; consult the event's settlement policy for precise methods.
Late-model updates from major numerical weather models (GFS, ECMWF), real-time satellite and surface observations, forecast shifts in the jet stream, and any emerging Santa Ana wind or frontal-event forecasts are the primary drivers of price movement in the two days before the event.
Use climatological late-March variability as context for what is typical and to gauge how unusual a given outcome would be, but treat each year's synoptic situation as the dominant determinant—historical averages inform baseline expectations but do not predict single-day extremes.