| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 23, 2026 will be. It matters to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and forecasters because it captures a one-day weather extreme with local economic and operational impacts.
Los Angeles weather in late March sits in a seasonal transition: Pacific storm tracks, coastal marine layer, and occasional offshore wind events (Santa Anas) all influence temperatures. The city also contains sharp microclimates—coastal areas, inland valleys, and elevated neighborhoods often record substantially different daytime highs—so the choice of observation site and synoptic pattern matter for this date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation about which temperature bin or outcome will be realized and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Use prices as a real-time synthesis of available information rather than a single deterministic forecast.
The event refers to the local calendar date in Los Angeles (Pacific Time) for March 23, 2026. That covers observations recorded during the local 24-hour period for that date; check the contract for the precise time-window and any DST references.
The market settles to the official data source and observing location specified in the contract's settlement rules. If the page does not list a station, the contract will indicate the authoritative provider (for example, an NWS/NOAA station or specific airport sensor)—always verify the settlement clause before trading.
Settlement will happen after the designated official source publishes the daily maximum for that local calendar date and any routine, documented revisions are processed. The contract specifies timing; if timing is not explicit, settlement typically follows publication of the authoritative daily summary.
LA contains coastal cool zones and much warmer inland valleys; a single official station may record a very different maximum than other parts of the metro area. The event outcome depends solely on the specified station or dataset, so the local microclimate at that site drives the realized maximum.
Monitor short-range NWP model ensembles, regional high-resolution models, NWS forecast discussions, satellite imagery for cloud/marine layer trends, and near-real-time surface observations and wind reports. Watch for changes in the synoptic pattern (ridge/trough) and any forecasts of offshore winds or marine layer persistence.