| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles will be on March 22, 2026 and is useful for tracking short‑term weather risk that affects energy, public health, and outdoor planning.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with large day‑to‑day variability in spring: some March days feature cool marine layers and clouds while others warm quickly inland under strong sunshine or offshore winds. Synoptic drivers (large high/low pressure systems), coastal influences, and occasional Santa Ana events together produce most of the year‑to‑year variability in late‑March highs.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations based on available forecasts and observations and will move as model runs and observations change; always consult the event's settlement rules to understand exactly how the final value will be determined.
The market will settle according to the event's official settlement rules posted on the market page; those rules will name the measurement source (for example a specific NWS/NOAA station or defined metro‑area metric) and the time window (typically the local calendar date). Check the market rules for the definitive station and time period.
Settlement timing is shown on the event page (currently listed as TBD) and typically occurs after the designated authority (e.g., NWS/NOAA or the named station) publishes its daily climate summary and any verification. Monitor the market page for the official settlement announcement.
Tie‑breaking procedures are defined in the event's settlement rules; common approaches include using the highest value among the named stations, a specified primary station, or a rounding convention. Refer to the market's rules for the exact tie‑break method.
Large‑scale forecasts (e.g., warm vs. cool regime) become useful more than a week out, but precise hourly or station‑level highs are much more reliable within about 48–72 hours; forecast skill increases notably as the date approaches and high‑resolution model runs and observations update.
Follow the designated official observation source in the market rules, the National Weather Service (Local NWS Los Angeles forecasts and daily summaries), METAR observations for major local airports, high‑resolution short‑range models (e.g., HRRR/NAM) in the 0–3 day window, and products indicating offshore wind events (Santa Ana watches) and coastal marine layer trends.