| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 21, 2026. It matters because daily peak temperatures affect energy use, public-health planning, and local operations.
Los Angeles in late March is a seasonal transition period with high variability driven by Pacific weather patterns, coastal marine influence, and occasional Santa Ana conditions. Synoptic-scale features (ridges, troughs) and broader climate influences like ENSO and long-term warming trends shape the baseline risk of unusually warm or cool days.
Market prices aggregate participant expectations and incoming meteorological information; they will change as model runs, observations, and official forecasts are updated. Use prices as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast.
The contract's settlement rules specify the authoritative data source and station(s) used for final determination — check the event page for that information. Common sources are National Weather Service official stations or a named consolidated dataset; the event page will list the precise source and measurement methodology.
The event page currently lists closes as TBD — the market will publish the official trading cutoff and settlement timestamp there. Settlement typically occurs after the 24‑hour observation period ends and the authoritative dataset is published.
Large-scale pattern shifts (several days out) can change the baseline, while high-resolution models and ensemble spreads become more informative within 48–72 hours; expect the market to update most when operational model runs and surface observations converge on a scenario.
Yes — Los Angeles includes coastal, valley, and basin microclimates with markedly different daytime maxima. The settlement outcome depends on the specific station(s) named in the contract, so microclimate differences matter where that station is located.
Track National Weather Service Los Angeles forecasts, operational model output (e.g., HRRR, GFS, ECMWF and high-resolution local models), real-time surface observations and satellite imagery, and the market’s price movements which reflect participant interpretation. After the event, consult the named authoritative dataset for settlement.