| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six predefined outcomes will correspond to the highest observed temperature in Los Angeles on March 20, 2026. It matters because daily-maximum temperatures affect energy demand, public health alerts, and short-term local planning.
Late March in Los Angeles sits in a seasonal transition from cooler, wetter winter patterns toward warmer, drier spring conditions; interannual variability and synoptic-scale patterns drive day-to-day differences. Long-term warming trends increase the odds of record or unusually warm days, while coastal influences and local wind events still produce strong spatial variability across the metro area.
Market odds reflect the crowd’s aggregation of current information — climatology, model forecasts, and real-time observations — and will evolve as new weather data arrive. Treat odds as a summary of market beliefs and update your view as deterministic models and ensembles converge or diverge heading into the target date.
Resolution timing is governed by the contract’s settlement rules on the event page; typically the highest temperature for the calendar date is taken from the designated observing period and posted once the official data source publishes its daily observations — the platform then completes settlement according to its stated timeline.
The event’s rule text on the market page names the official observing station or agency (for example a National Weather Service station or a specified airport station); consult that rule text to see the exact station or dataset used for settlement.
The six discrete outcomes are predefined on the market page and each maps to a specific temperature range or category; those exact ranges are fixed when the market is created and are shown in the event’s outcomes section.
Anomalously strong onshore ridge or heat dome, rapid development of offshore downslope winds (e.g., Santa Ana conditions), unusually warm ocean temperatures reducing coastal cooling, or rapid cloud clearing combined with strong insolation could all push the maximum higher than typical for late March.
Use climatology as a baseline expectation for late-March values, then give increasing weight to short-range deterministic and ensemble model forecasts within about 7–10 days of the date; monitor synoptic charts, model consensus, and real-time observations because they can shift the near-term probability of particular outcome bins.