| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° or below | 98% | 96¢ | 98¢ | — | $97K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $76K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $62K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $58K | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $50K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Los Angeles on March 2, 2026 will be and allows traders to express views on a single-day weather extreme. Outcomes matter for short-term weather risk management, local planning, and observers tracking seasonal shifts.
Los Angeles in early March is typically in a transitional season with large day-to-day variability driven by Pacific storms, the coastal marine layer, and occasional offshore (Santa Ana) winds. Historical March highs for the region cover a wide range depending on whether the coast is clouded in or an inland high-pressure ridge is present; long-term warming trends and interannual patterns like ENSO can shift baseline expectations. This market is split into six mutually exclusive outcome bins (see the market page for exact breakpoints) and is administered by KALSHI.
Market prices reflect the aggregated expectations of traders based on current forecasts and observations and will change as new data arrive. Prices are signals of market sentiment, not guaranteed outcomes, and settlement will follow the market's published measurement and tie-break rules.
The market's outcome will be determined by the reporting station specified in the event description and settlement rules; consult the market page for the designated official source (for example, a National Weather Service station) and the exact measurement standard used.
The six outcomes are the mutually exclusive temperature bins defined on the market page; each bin corresponds to a specific contiguous range of highest-observed temperatures on March 2, 2026—check the market listing for the exact breakpoints and inclusive/exclusive boundary conventions.
Trading close is listed as TBD on the market header; the precise close time will be posted on the event page. The final official highest temperature will be taken from the designated reporting source and published after the observation period per KALSHI's settlement schedule.
Settlement follows the event's published rules: boundaries are defined as inclusive or exclusive in the outcome labels on the market page, and the designated official reporting source's value is used. For any tie-resolution specifics, consult the market's settlement rules on the event page.
Forecast model runs (GFS, ECMWF), rapid-refresh mesoscale guidance, surface observation trends, satellite and radar trends for cloud cover, and wind forecasts indicating potential Santa Ana events are the primary inputs that typically shift market expectations in the run-up to the date.