| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This KALSHI market asks which discrete temperature outcome will be recorded as the highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 19, 2026. It matters for weather traders and anyone tracking short-term climate variability because it aggregates real-money expectations about a single-day weather extreme.
Los Angeles has strong day-to-day variability in spring due to interactions between the Pacific marine layer, offshore wind events, and synoptic weather patterns. March can produce cool, marine-influenced days as well as warm inland spikes when high pressure and offshore winds set up; local microclimates (coast vs. inland valleys) further shape observed maxima. Historical seasonal trends also raise the baseline for extremes, but single-day outcomes remain driven by transient weather systems.
Market prices on this contract represent the market’s evolving assessment of which outcome will be observed on that date; they update as forecasts, observations, and model guidance change. To know exactly how the contract will settle, consult the market’s official settlement rules and the designated observational source listed on the event page.
The market will settle to the temperature reported by the authoritative observing source specified in the contract. Check the event’s official rules on KALSHI to confirm which station or dataset (for example, a specific NWS station) is designated for settlement.
Settlement usually follows the contract language: it will specify whether the highest temperature is the official daily maximum for that calendar date at the designated station or a measurement at a particular observation time. Refer to the event page to see which definition applies.
Forecast-model updates, ensemble spreads, and short-range observations (satellite, radar, upper-air soundings) typically influence the market in the days and hours leading up to the date; abrupt changes in wind patterns or cloud cover can produce rapid market adjustments as new information arrives.
Los Angeles contains coastal, urban, and inland valley microclimates; the designated observing station determines which microclimate’s temperature counts. For example, a station near the coast will reflect marine moderation while an inland valley site will capture stronger daytime heating.
Long-term warming can shift the baseline upward, but single-day extremes are driven primarily by short-term atmospheric conditions. Traders should weigh both—a slowly changing climatological baseline and real-time forecast indicators such as pressure patterns and wind forecasts—while confirming the market’s settlement definition.