| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be recorded as the highest in Los Angeles on March 18, 2026; it matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather outcomes and for observers tracking seasonal variability. Temperatures on a single day can affect energy demand, public health messaging, and local event planning.
Los Angeles in mid‑March sits in a transitional season where outcomes can range from cool, marine‑cooled days to warmer, inland or Santa Ana‑influenced conditions. Historical climatology shows notable day‑to‑day variability, and synoptic drivers such as Pacific storms or building ridges can produce outlier highs or unseasonable warmth. Market prices for this event will react to model updates, observational data, and any forecasted wind or cloud changes in the days leading up to March 18.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders about which outcome will occur and update as new weather model runs and observations arrive. Treat market odds as an imperfect, real‑time aggregation of available information rather than as a fixed forecast.
Settlement will follow the contract's specified official data source and station; consult the event page or the contract rules on KALSHI to see which observing network (for example an NWS/NOAA station) and which measurement record are authoritative for this market.
The precise geographic definition (specific station or location) is set in the contract terms on KALSHI; the market uses that defined observation point rather than a county or multi‑station blend unless explicitly stated.
The contract specifies the local time window used for settlement (typically a calendar day in local time); check the event's settlement rules on KALSHI for the exact start and end times.
As operational model outputs, satellite trends, and surface observations change, traders update positions to reflect new expectations; large synoptic shifts or confirmation of offshore winds can move market prices quickly in the final 48–72 hours.
Settlement follows the dispute and quality‑control procedures laid out in the contract: KALSHI will rely on the designated official source and any stated secondary procedures (such as using an alternative validated observation or consulting the responsible meteorological agency) described in the event terms.