| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what the highest official air temperature recorded in Los Angeles will be on March 17, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature outcomes reflect weather patterns that affect travel, energy demand, and local planning decisions.
March is a transitional month in southern California when temperatures can swing depending on the presence of onshore marine air, inland warming, or episodic warm Santa Ana events. Weather on a single date is driven by large-scale Pacific patterns, the strength of coastal influences, and local factors such as elevation and urban heat effects.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective beliefs about which temperature-range outcome will match the official observation for the specified reporting location and time window. Consult the event's settlement rules to see which observing station and observation period determine the winning outcome.
Settlement is based on the official observation specified in the market’s rules—typically the maximum air temperature recorded at the named official weather station or network during the local calendar day. Check the event page for the precise station list and observation protocol used for settlement.
The market's listed close time is currently TBD. The event page will display the final close time and the settlement timeline; outcome settlement usually occurs after the official daily observations are published by the designated observing agency.
Most weather markets settle to observations from an authoritative source such as the National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) or designated airport ASOS/Automated Surface Observing System stations. The market’s settlement rules identify the specific agency and station(s) to be used.
A strong marine layer or persistent onshore flow tends to keep coastal highs cooler by limiting daytime heating, while Santa Ana/offshore winds bring dry, warm air that can raise temperatures substantially across both coastal and inland neighborhoods.
Historical records and long-term climate normals provide context on typical and extreme March conditions for different parts of Los Angeles, but any single date can diverge from climatology depending on the short-term synoptic pattern and local meteorological factors.