| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be recorded as the highest in Los Angeles on March 16, 2026. It matters to traders, event planners, and anyone monitoring short-term weather risk or climate variability for that specific day.
Los Angeles in mid-March typically sits in a transitional season where cool marine influence can dominate but occasional warm spells occur, especially if offshore winds or a strong high-pressure ridge develop. Local factors such as the marine layer, urban heat island effects, and larger-scale drivers like Pacific sea-surface temperatures all shape day-to-day extremes.
Market prices reflect participants’ aggregated views based on forecast models, observed trends, and reported conditions; they update as new model runs, observations, or meteorological events arrive. Treat prices as a dynamic summary of current information rather than a fixed forecast.
Settlement will follow the exchange's stated data source and station in the market rules; many weather contracts use the National Weather Service or NCEI daily maximum from a designated Los Angeles observing site (for example an official airport station). Check the market’s settlement rules or contact the exchange to confirm the exact station and dataset.
The market close time is listed on the event page (here shown as TBD); the official daily maximum is typically available in the NWS/NCEI daily summary after the date in question, and exchanges generally post settlement once they receive and verify that official value.
A Santa Ana event brings warm, dry offshore winds that can raise temperatures rapidly, often producing much higher daytime maxima than under onshore-marine conditions—making Santa Anas one of the strongest short-term drivers toward higher outcomes.
Compare the same observing station’s historical daily maxima from authoritative climate records (NCEI/GHCN), accounting for any station moves or instrumentation changes; avoid mixing different stations when assessing anomalies.
The exchange’s contingency and settlement rules govern such cases: common actions include using a backup nearby station, applying quality-control adjustments from the meteorological authority, or waiting for a finalized NCEI value. If the market page doesn’t specify, contact the exchange for their documented procedure.