| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bracket will be the highest observed in Los Angeles on March 15, 2026; it matters to people tracking weather-driven impacts on health, energy demand, and outdoor events.
Mid-March in Los Angeles sits in a seasonal transition where conditions can range from cool, marine-influenced days to anomalously warm days driven by offshore flow. Synoptic patterns (Pacific ridges or troughs), occasional Santa Ana events, and broader climate variability can all produce notable swings around this date.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which temperature bracket is most likely to occur; use those prices alongside official forecasts, model guidance, and the market’s stated resolution rules to form your own view.
The event resolves using the official source specified on the KALSHI event page; consult the market’s resolution rules to see the named observing station and dataset (for example, a National Weather Service or airport observation) that will be used.
The time window for resolution is defined in the market’s rules on the event page — many markets use the calendar day in local time (00:00–23:59) or a specific observation period; check KALSHI’s stated definition for this market.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature bracket listed on the event page; trades are settled to the bracket that contains the highest officially observed temperature, so review the exact ranges before trading.
The event currently shows 'Closes: TBD' — KALSHI will post the trading close time and the resolution timeline on the market page; resolution typically occurs after the official observation for the day is published by the nominated source.
Possible drivers include a strong offshore (Santa Ana) wind event producing warm, dry downslope flow, a pronounced Pacific ridge bringing warmer air and clear skies, or localized downslope warming in inland valleys amplified by dry soils and the urban heat island; corroborating model forecasts and observations are important for anticipating these.