| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Los Angeles on March 14, 2026. It matters for traders, forecasters, and anyone tracking short-term weather risk or climate variability.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with large day-to-day variability in spring; March temperatures can swing between cool, marine-influenced days and much warmer, offshore-wind–driven spells. Synoptic-scale patterns (Pacific troughs or ridges), the strength of the marine layer, and any Santa Ana events are typical drivers of that variability. Seasonal baseline conditions such as El Niño/La Niña and recent multi-year warming trends provide context but do not determine a single day's maximum.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations about which discrete temperature outcome will be observed; interpret them as relative signals about expected ranges rather than precise meteorological forecasts.
The market's contract text specifies the official observing station or dataset used for settlement; consult the event page or contract rules to see whether settlement is tied to a specific NWS station, airport sensor, or other named data source.
Settlement typically uses the local calendar day at the specified station (00:00 through 23:59 local time) unless the contract text defines a different window; check the market rules for the precise timezone and interval.
The market page lists the six discrete temperature outcomes and any rounding or precision rules; settlement follows those definitions exactly, so review the outcome labels and the contract language to see whether temperatures are rounded to whole degrees or a different precision.
Tie-breaking and handling of simultaneous or duplicate readings are governed by the market's settlement policy in the contract text; if the contract does not explicitly resolve an ambiguity, the platform's stated dispute or settlement procedures will apply.
Watch deterministic and ensemble model runs (e.g., ECMWF, GFS, high-resolution regional models), updated surface and upper-air observations, satellite imagery of cloud and marine layer extent, sea surface temperature analyses, and National Weather Service local forecasts and discussions for changes in timing or the potential for offshore winds.