| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be recorded as the highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 13, 2026; it matters because it translates weather uncertainty into a tradable outcome and highlights how forecasts and observations evolve ahead of a specific day.
Los Angeles weather in mid‑March is seasonally transitional, with temperatures sensitive to short‑term shifts in large‑scale patterns, coastal marine influence, and urban heat effects. Markets like this draw on historical climatology, operational weather models, and real‑time observations to set and update outcome prices; the contract lists six discrete outcomes and the official close time is listed as TBD on the platform.
Market prices are an aggregate signal of participant expectations and information (model runs, observations, expert views) and should be read as a dynamic reflection of current information rather than an official forecast.
Resolution will follow the contract's official resolution clause; typically the highest temperature is taken from the designated National Weather Service or other specified official observation station for Los Angeles named in the market rules—consult the market's resolution details on the platform to see the exact reporting station.
The market resolves based on the local calendar date as defined in the contract; check the market's resolution rules for whether the 24‑hour period is local midnight to midnight or an alternative window tied to the reporting station.
The six outcomes correspond to the predefined temperature ranges listed on the market page; tie or boundary resolution procedures (for example, if the observed temperature falls exactly on a boundary) are governed by the contract's resolution rules—review those rules for rounding, tie-breaking, and measurement conventions.
The market's close time is marked as TBD; the platform will publish the official trading cutoff before the event—watch the market page or platform notifications for the confirmed close time.
As model runs, short‑range forecasts, and local observations update, participants revise their positions; rapid changes in model guidance or new observational evidence (e.g., an unexpected marine surge or heat‑ridge amplification) can shift market prices quickly, reflecting the evolving consensus about which temperature range is most likely.