| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Los Angeles on March 12, 2026; it matters to traders, weather forecasters, and anyone with weather-dependent exposure. Markets like this aggregate forward-looking information about weather forecasts and model uncertainty.
March in Los Angeles is a transitional month between cool, wet winter patterns and warmer, drier spring conditions, so synoptic-scale features and intra-seasonal oscillations typically drive day-to-day variability. Large-scale drivers (ENSO phase, Pacific storm track), regional features (coastal marine layer, Santa Ana offshore winds), and local observation site characteristics all shape what the observed high will be.
Market prices are an evolving consensus signal about which temperature-range outcome participants expect to occur; shifts in prices reflect new model guidance, observational updates, and changing risk perceptions. Use prices as a snapshot of collective expectations, not as a fixed forecast.
The market page should list the trading close time (currently TBD); settlement normally occurs after the official daily maximum for March 12 is available from the named data source and any required validation/fallback windows have passed. Check the contract rules on the platform for the exact settlement timetable.
The contract specifies the official settlement source (for example, a named NWS/NOAA observing station or a specific dataset). Consult the market's settlement details to see which station or dataset will be used and whether multiple stations or a regional aggregate apply.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature category (bins or exact values) that cover all plausible highest-temperature results for March 12, 2026. The market description lists the exact numeric cutoffs and how ties or equal maxima are handled—read those definitions before trading.
Historical climatology gives a baseline range and typical variability for March 12 at the settlement station(s), which helps set expectations and contextualize model forecasts; however, short-term synoptic developments and local effects can produce departures from climatology, so combine historical context with current model guidance.
Settlement rules specify fallback procedures (use of secondary datasets, quality-controlled corrections, or an official adjudication process) if the primary observation is unavailable or corrected. The market will follow the platform's published dispute and settlement policies—refer to those rules for how such cases are resolved.