| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $119K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 3% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $83K | Trade → |
| 69° or below | 89% | 89¢ | 92¢ | — | $62K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $42K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 12% | 12¢ | 15¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Los Angeles on March 11, 2026. It matters for traders, weather forecasters, and users with weather-sensitive exposure (energy, agriculture, event planning) who want a market-based signal of expected conditions on that specific date.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with large day-to-day variability in early March driven by Pacific storm tracks, occasional offshore Santa Ana wind events, and mesoscale coastal effects. Interannual factors such as ENSO state and the seasonal progress of the jet stream can shift the balance between cool, stormy weather and warmer, dry conditions around this date. Historical daily maxima provide context but don’t determine a single-year outcome because synoptic setup dominates the result.
Market prices aggregate participants’ information and updates about likely temperature outcomes for that date; they are a dynamic signal of collective expectations rather than a weather forecast from any single model. Always read the contract settlement rules to understand what the market prices correspond to in terms of observation site, units, and time window.
The exact station and instrument are specified in the contract’s settlement terms on the KALSHI event page; settlement typically relies on an official NWS/ASOS or other designated observational source for the named location, so check the event details for the precise station identifier.
The event’s settlement rules will define the time window (for example, the local calendar day at the specified station or a UTC interval); consult the KALSHI event description to see whether midnight-to-midnight local time or another interval is used.
Settlement procedures and inclusivity/exclusivity of boundaries are defined in the contract terms; the event page will state whether a boundary value goes to the lower or higher bin, and KALSHI’s official settlement notes govern the final assignment.
The event header shows the close time as TBD; KALSHI will announce a specific closing time before trading ends. Closing time determines until when participants can trade and matters because new forecasts and observations near that cutoff can move prices rapidly.
Yes. If the designated observational record is revised, quality-controlled, or superseded by an official correction, the market settles based on the official, final data source named in the contract; disputes or adjustments follow KALSHI’s published settlement and dispute procedures.