| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $83K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $66K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $56K | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $44K | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $29K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature reported for Los Angeles will be on March 10, 2026, and matters for people and businesses managing weather-sensitive operations such as energy demand, agriculture, and outdoor events.
Los Angeles in early March sits between winter and spring climatology, so temperatures can swing depending on large-scale Pacific patterns, coastal cloud cover, and downslope wind events. Factors such as Santa Ana/downslope winds, the presence or absence of a marine layer, and any passing frontal systems strongly influence day-to-day highs. The market has attracted meaningful participation (total volume traded listed as $34,722), which affects liquidity and how quickly prices respond to new information.
Market prices represent the aggregated beliefs of traders and move as new forecast data and trades arrive; they are not guarantees but a continuously updating consensus. Interpret them as a snapshot of market sentiment that can change with updated observations and model runs.
Settlement rules are specified on the KALSHI contract page; consult that market description to see the exact observing station (for example, a specific NWS or airport station) and the dataset or METAR reports that will be used for the official maximum temperature.
The market description on KALSHI will state the local time window and timezone used for the calendar day; many weather contracts use local midnight-to-midnight periods, but always check the contract for the authoritative settlement timezone and cutoff times.
Synoptic evolution on March 9—such as the approach of a high-pressure ridge, a frontal boundary, or warming downslope winds—can alter overnight temperatures, boundary-layer structure, and cloud cover, all of which affect the following day's maximum on March 10.
Volume is an indicator of liquidity: higher traded volume generally means prices incorporate more information and are quicker to adjust, while lower volume can make prices more volatile or sensitive to individual large trades; interpret prices with that liquidity context in mind.
Look at long-term March climatology for the relevant observing station, past March 10 daily maximums, recent trends in seasonal temperatures, and archived cases of Santa Ana events and marine-layer variability; also review short-range model forecasts (GFS/ECMWF ensemble spreads, high-resolution regional models) in the days before March 10.