| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded in Los Angeles on April 6, 2026. It provides a way to quantify meteorological uncertainty for a specific date in the Southern California spring season.
April in Los Angeles typically marks a transition period where coastal temperatures are influenced by the strength of the marine layer and the inland migration of high-pressure ridges. Historical data for this date often shows significant variance based on whether Southern California is experiencing an offshore Santa Ana wind event or a cooling onshore flow from the Pacific Ocean. Because microclimates in the LA basin can cause localized temperature swings, this market relies on official data from the National Weather Service's primary observation site.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of weather models and historical climate trends, with participants trading based on their assessment of long-range meteorological forecasts.
The market utilizes official readings from the National Weather Service observation site at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) unless otherwise specified in the market rules.
Santa Ana winds bring hot, dry air from the interior deserts to the coast, which can cause temperatures to spike significantly above the seasonal average for April.
The market is designed to capture the actual observed high temperature; extreme weather events are reflected in the final settlement value regardless of whether they deviate from historical norms.
The outcomes are categorized into temperature ranges; the settlement is based on the single highest temperature reading recorded by the official station during the 24-hour calendar day.
A strong marine layer acts as a cooling mechanism by trapping cool, moist air along the coast, which typically prevents temperatures from reaching the levels seen in drier, inland-dominated weather patterns.