| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily maximum temperature recorded in Los Angeles on April 3, 2026. It allows participants to hedge against or speculate on extreme weather variability during the transition from early spring to summer.
Los Angeles weather in early April is typically influenced by the interaction between the cool Pacific Ocean and continental air masses. While spring temperatures are generally moderate, the region is prone to 'Santa Ana' wind events or high-pressure ridges that can cause sudden, unseasonable heat spikes. Historical data for this time of year shows significant variance depending on local microclimates and broad atmospheric patterns like El Niño or La Niña cycles.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of meteorological models and historical temperature distributions for the specified date in downtown Los Angeles.
The market typically relies on the official data recorded at the National Weather Service station designated for downtown Los Angeles.
An unseasonable heat wave driven by offshore winds can push temperatures significantly above the historical April mean, shifting the outcome toward the higher temperature buckets.
The event specifically measures the 'highest' temperature achieved at any point during the 24-hour period of April 3, 2026.
Spring in Los Angeles is a transitional period where temperatures are highly sensitive to the exact positioning of the jet stream, making daily highs difficult to forecast weeks or months in advance.
In the event of anomalous data issues, the market will defer to the official, verified records provided by the National Weather Service or the designated primary source of record.