| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84° to 85° | 35% | 30¢ | 36¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 60% | 59¢ | 62¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 2% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will represent the highest air temperature recorded in Houston on March 9, 2026; it matters because day-to-day temperature extremes affect energy demand, public health, and short-term weather risk assessments.
Early March temperatures in Houston can swing widely due to clash between Gulf moisture and mid-latitude cold fronts; longer-term warming trends shift baseline conditions but day-to-day outcomes are dominated by synoptic weather patterns. This market aggregates traders' views on those meteorological drivers and settles against an official observational record specified by the contract.
Market prices reflect the collective forecast for which temperature range will be observed and update as new forecast data arrive; interpret them as a real‑time summary of informed expectations, not a guarantee of the final measurement.
Close time is shown on the market page (currently TBD); settlement occurs after the official temperature observation for March 9, 2026 is published and after any adjudication window defined in the contract.
The contract specifies the authoritative data source and reporting location (for example, an official NWS/NOAA observation station); check the market’s resolution rules on the event page for the exact dataset and site used for settlement.
Outcomes are contiguous, mutually exclusive temperature bins listed on the event page; the contract includes tie‑breaking and rounding rules to assign an observed value that falls exactly on a bin boundary—refer to those rules for the definitive treatment.
Monitor deterministic and ensemble model runs (GFS, ECMWF, regional models), surface and upper‑air analyses, frontal timing forecasts, precipitation/cloud predictions, and Gulf SST updates—these will shift the expected daytime maximum most directly.
KALSHI resolves markets according to its published resolution and dispute policies; if the official observational record is corrected, the platform follows the adjudicator and contract rules to determine final settlement—consult the event page for the dispute process and timeline.