| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or below | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 83° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be recorded as the highest temperature in Houston on March 8, 2026; it matters because temperature extremes affect energy demand, public safety, and short-term economic activity.
Houston's early March climate sits in the seasonal transition between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing with passing fronts or Gulf-influenced air masses. Historical records show both mild and unusually warm or cool days on this calendar date, so synoptic setup in the days leading up to March 8 typically determines whether the day is near-seasonal or an outlier.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders about which temperature range will occur; they update as new weather model runs and observations arrive and should be read as a dynamic consensus rather than a fixed measurement.
The contract will specify the settlement time window; typically platforms use the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the designated observation site, but you should confirm the event’s official definition and any daylight-saving time adjustments in the contract text.
Settlement normally relies on the official observing station or data source named in the contract—commonly an NWS/NOAA station serving the Houston area—so check the event page or contract details to see which exact station and dataset are authoritative.
As March 8 approaches, new model runs, NWS forecasts, and real-time observations (radar, satellites) will shift trader expectations; large model changes or nowcasts for cloud cover, frontal timing, or precipitation can move prices quickly.
The six outcomes correspond to predefined temperature ranges or bins covering possible highest-temperature values; only the bin that contains the official observed maximum will settle as the winning outcome—consult the contract for the exact numeric bin edges.
Compare long-term daily normals and past March 8 daily maxima from official records to gauge how typical or extreme a given bin would be; combine that climatology with current-season trends and short-range forecasts to form an expectation, but rely on the contract’s specified observing station for settlement.