| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 80° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 89° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will contain Houston's highest observed temperature on March 7, 2026; it matters because daily temperature extremes affect energy use, health, and local weather-sensitive decisions.
Houston has a humid subtropical climate and early March is a transitional month when either late winter cold fronts or early spring warm spells can dominate. Synoptic-scale patterns (cold fronts, upper-level ridges, Gulf moisture) and local factors (urban heat island, cloud cover) combine to make day-to-day highs fairly variable. Ongoing regional climate trends increase the frequency of warm extremes over multi‑decadal timescales, but individual-day outcomes are driven by short-term weather systems.
Market odds reflect the collective market view about which temperature range will occur, and they update as new model forecasts, observations, and analyses become available. Use market prices as a real-time consensus signal while also consulting official forecasts and the contract's resolution rules for measurement details.
Resolution will follow the data source and observing site specified in the contract listed on Kalshi; commonly these contracts reference a National Weather Service (NWS) official station or a defined dataset, so check the market rules for the exact station and dataset used for this event.
The market close time is set by Kalshi (currently listed as TBD) and the outcome is resolved after the official daily observations for March 7, 2026 are published according to the contract's resolution rules; consult the Kalshi market page for the specific close and resolution schedule.
The precise definition (instantaneous sensor peak, 5‑minute average, hourly maximum, or daily summary) is specified in the contract terms on Kalshi; resolution will use whichever measurement method the contract names, so review those rules before trading.
Monitor synoptic model runs for frontal timing and the position of ridges/troughs, surface wind direction (onshore southerly winds favor higher temps), cloud cover forecasts, and precipitation potential — changes in any of these factors in the 48–72 hours before the date can materially shift the expected daily high.
March in Houston is transitional and can swing from cool to warm depending on transient fronts, so historical variability means short‑term forecasts and the exact timing of weather systems typically matter more than long‑term averages; traders should combine recent model guidance, official forecasts, and the contract's measurement rules when forming expectations.