| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° or below | 2% | 2¢ | 4¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 65% | 60¢ | 62¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 3% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 12% | 14¢ | 15¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 20% | 19¢ | 20¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 3% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $735 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will be the highest recorded in Houston on March 5, 2026; it matters because single-day temperature outcomes reflect short-term weather patterns that influence energy demand, public events, and local services.
The market offers six discrete outcomes representing different ranges for the day’s maximum temperature in Houston. Short-term weather variability in late winter/early spring—frontal passages, warm advection, or anomalous sunshine—drives day-to-day swings, so outcomes can change as forecasts update. Traders typically respond to model runs, observations, and updates from local weather services.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders about which outcome will occur and update as new information arrives; treat them as a realtime consensus signal that complements official forecasts and model guidance.
The market resolution will follow the data source specified in its rules; typically that is an official National Weather Service or ASOS observation for the city or the particular station named in the market description. Check the market’s resolution clause to confirm the exact station or dataset.
The market close time is listed as TBD; the platform will publish the final cutoff on the market page. Trades must be placed before that posted close time to affect outcomes.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range defined in the market description. Only the outcome whose range contains the official reported maximum temperature (per the specified data source) will resolve as the winning outcome.
Resolution procedures for missing or suspect data are set out in the market’s rules; common practices include using quality-controlled official observations, fallback stations or datasets named in the rules, or deferral to a designated weather authority if the primary data are invalid.
The day’s maximum can affect heating or cooling demand, scheduling of outdoor events, short-term public health messaging, and operations for transportation or utilities, particularly if the temperature is notably warmer or cooler than typical early-March conditions.