| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° to 83° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This event asks which reported temperature will be the highest observed in Houston on March 4, 2026, according to the contract's designated observation. Single-day temperature extrema matter for local energy demand, public health planning, and short-term weather forecasting validation.
Houston's early March climate is often variable because of interactions between cold fronts from the interior and warm, moist Gulf flow; that volatility is what drives markets tied to single-day highs. The market for this event is listed with six discrete outcomes and will settle according to the platform's published settlement source and rules.
Market odds aggregate traders' interpretation of current forecasts, model runs, and risk appetite and update as new meteorological data arrives. Treat market prices as a real-time consensus signal to be checked against official observations and the contract's settlement terms.
Settlement is governed by the contract's settlement language; it typically references a specific official observing station or authoritative dataset and uses the highest official reported temperature for the local date. Consult the event page on the platform for the exact definition and source used for settlement.
The event's contract specifies the official observing station or dataset that will be used; the platform's settlement details identify the exact source (for example, a designated NOAA/NWS station). Only that named source will be used for settlement.
The market's close time is listed as TBD on the event page, so check the platform for updates. Settlement typically occurs after the designated observing authority publishes the daily summary for March 4, 2026, per the contract's settlement timeline.
Treatment of revisions depends on the contract's rules: many contracts use the official final validated observation from the named source, and some specify a cutoff for using initial versus revised values. Refer to the event's settlement terms to see which data version will be used.
Major changes would include shifts in model-forecasted frontal timing, changes in Gulf moisture advection that alter cloud and precipitation prospects, development or breakdown of upper-level ridging, and any forecasted mesoscale features like a persistent cloud deck or sea-breeze boundary that modify daytime heating.