| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $72K | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 79° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 88° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will contain the highest air temperature observed in Houston on March 3, 2026; it matters for participants with weather exposure and for people tracking how forecasts translate into market expectations.
Houston in early March sits in a transitional season where temperatures can swing rapidly because of interactions between Gulf moisture and mid-latitude frontal systems. Large-scale patterns (for example, the phase of ENSO and the upper‑level jet) and short‑term synoptic timing both steer whether the day trends cooler or unusually warm. The market has attracted measurable liquidity (Total Volume Traded: $102,196), which means new forecast information can move prices.
Market prices aggregate traders' beliefs about which temperature outcome will occur and update as forecasts and observations arrive; interpret price moves as real‑time signals of changing expectations rather than fixed forecasts.
Settlement will follow the data source and station specified in the contract's settlement rules on the exchange; check the event page for the named official station (typically an NWS/FAA observation site such as a Houston area airport) and the primary data provider.
The contract uses the local date at the designated observation station: the 24‑hour period from 00:00 to 23:59 local time for March 3, 2026, as recorded by the official data source specified in the event rules.
The exchange will settle to the final official record from the designated data source per its rules; if data are missing or under revision, settlement can be delayed until the exchange receives the authoritative corrected value.
New model runs that change the timing of a front or the strength of onshore flow, high‑resolution convective guidance, satellite trends in cloud cover, and rapid observational reports (surface stations, sounding launches) are the most likely to shift trader expectations.
Use historical March climatology and recent interannual variability to establish a baseline expectation, but weight that against current synoptic forecasts and real‑time model trends as the date approaches, since day‑to‑day weather drivers determine the actual outcome.