| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Houston will be on March 29, 2026. It matters because daily peak temperature influences energy demand, public health, transportation, and short-term weather risk assessments.
Houston in late March sits in a transition season where outcomes can swing from cool to warm depending on synoptic patterns. Day-to-day results are driven primarily by the presence or absence of cold fronts, warm upper-level ridges, Gulf moisture and cloud cover; longer-term climate trends have raised baseline temperatures but do not determine any single day's maximum by themselves.
Market prices represent the collective view of traders synthesizing model guidance, observations, and news; treat them as a real-time summary of uncertainty rather than a deterministic forecast. For final settlement, rely on the event's stated resolution source and procedures.
The market's resolution rules list the official data source and station; commonly platforms use an NWS/ASOS station at a named Houston airport or a specified NCEI/NWS product. Check the event page for the designated station and data vendor, and contact platform support if the information is unclear.
The listed close time is TBD. Settlement typically occurs after the calendar day ends once the designated observing network publishes the official daily maximum; exact timing and any delay rules are specified in the market's resolution policy.
A premature or delayed cold front, a strong upper-level ridge bringing unseasonably warm air, persistent onshore moisture producing clouds or rain, or a stalled surface boundary producing localized convection could all materially change the day's maximum temperature.
Late March is climatologically variable; single-day extremes often reflect short-term synoptic setup more than long-term trends. Use historical context to understand typical variability, but evaluate this event based on current model guidance and near-term observations.
Resolution for missing, suspect, or flagged data follows the platform's contingency rules—options include using a backup station, a validated alternative dataset, or arbitration. Review the event's resolution policy and contact the platform if you anticipate data issues.